Hello, I am Tsuji, an administrative scrivener specializing in immigration services in Takadanobaba, Shinjuku.
This time, I would like to change the subject, and take up the fact that the examination period for permanent residence applications is getting extremely long under the jurisdiction of the Tokyo Regional Immigration Bureau.

１、Current situation

As of the end of May 2024, the Tokyo Regional Immigration Bureau's permanent residence examination division is processing applications from January of last year, and the estimated examination time is about 15 months.

Since the standard examination period for permanent residence applications is 4 months, it is unusual for it to take more than one year.

I think the breakdown of the 15 months is probably that about 11 months is just "waiting time" without any examination, and after that, about 4 months for examination and processing.
Incidentally, the Yokohama jurisdiction takes about the same amount of time.

And to my horror, this examination period is getting longer and longer.

Now, I would like to explore the cause of this.

２、Examination of statistical data

The number of resident status examinations is published as national statistical data on a monthly basis.
　Here -> https://www.moj.go.jp/isa/policies/statistics/toukei_ichiran_nyukan.html

Using this statistical data, I have created the following graph.
It plots the total number of applications, the number of new applications, and the number of settlement processed per month in the permanent residence examination at Tokyo Regional Immigration Bureau from March 2023 to February 2024.

What is clear is that the total number of applications that have not yet been settled is increasing rapidly, and is climbing steadily.
This is because the number of applications processed is smaller than the number of new applications, which means that the more time passes, the more applications are piling up.

The strange thing is that at the begining of the last year they were processing over 2,000 settlements, but since the fall it had dropped to about 1,600.
This has also reduced the ability to process applications, and the review period is getting longer and longer.

In other words, unless the number of new applications decreases or the number of settlements processed increases, we can expect the review period to continue to get longer and longer.

３、Will the situation improve only by waiting?

There is absolutely no sign that the situation at the Tokyo Immigration Bureau will improve.
For the past two years or so, the examination period has been getting longer and longer.

This trend will probably never stop.
Even if you submit an application for permanent residence now, you will have to wait about 20 months.

In the current Diet session, a permanent resident revocation system is going to be established.
It would be nice if foreign nationals would think that they do not want to become such unstable permanent residents and new applications will decrease, but I do not see that happening in the future.

It is also inconceivable that the processing capacity of the Tokyo Regional Immigration Bureau will suddenly increase (either by increasing the number of examiners or by simplifying the screening process).
Therefore, it is safe to say that external factors can hardly be expected to shorten the screening period.

*However, if the LDP loses the election and the government changes, there is a possibility that the government policy will change 180 degrees.

４、What are the risks of a long review period?

There are various possible risks.

If the examination period extends over a year, you may change jobs, for example.
You may change jobs to increase your annual income,it is fine, but you may also change jobs to do what you want to do, which may lower your annual income.
In this way, the risk of falling below the annual income threshold for immigration purposes arises.

When changing jobs, if the date of resignation and the date of entry into the company straddle the month, the risk of paying national pension and national health insurance is high.

For example, if you are driving in Japan, the risk of being involved in a traffic accident, or of causing one yourself, is greater the longer you stay.
Minor violations are fine, but if it is a major accident or a serious violation that takes you to court for a hearing, that alone will result in a denial of your application for permanent residence.

If you change jobs, move, or have traffic violations, you will have to notify the Immigration Bureau and submit additional information to the Permanent Residence Examiner each time.
Each time you do this, you are exposed to the risk that you may not file a notification.

If you become ill and are unable to work, you may not meet the annual income requirement and your permanent residence may be denied.

Thus, no matter how careful you are, negative incidents in your lives will appear as risks because the longer the examination period, the higher the probability of possible occurrence.

５、Measures we can take

So are there any measures we, the applicants, can take?

First, consider moving.

The only jurisdictions that have such a long examination period are Tokyo Immigration Bureau and Yokohama Immigration Bureau.
In other jurisdictions, the number of settlement processes is larger than or equal to the number of new applications, and the examination is completed near the standard examination period.

Therefore, as long as you leave the jurisdiction of Tokyo Regional Immigration Bureau, you can manage.
The jurisdiction of Tokyo Immigration Bureau covers Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba, Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Yamanashi, Nagano, and Niigata prefectures.

Although the area is quite large, the only places close to Tokyo where jurisdiction can be separated are Shizuoka Prefecture (Nagoya Immigration Office) and Fukushima Prefecture (Sendai Immigration Office).

These areas are within an hour's ride of Tokyo, as there is a bullet train available.
If you are a single person and your company allows it, you should move before applying for permanent residence.

Of course, if you have a family, it is difficult to consider moving.
However, since only the jurisdiction of the Tokyo Immigration Bureau has an unusual screening period, some municipalities offer I-turn subsidies, etc., and it would be wise to consider moving in consultation with the company.

There is also the method of saying the time that you should apply with well-organized attached documents that will make the screening easier.
But anyway, we know that the long part is not the actual period of examination.

What is long is the time you are waiting for the screening to begin.
Even if you submit your application with documents that promote smooth screening, the overall screening period will hardly change.

Of course, if you submit an application with strange documents, the examination will take longer and cause a lot of inconvenience to other applicants.
Therefore, it is preferable to apply with proper supporting documents if at all possible.
However, this is a measure that has more of an atmosphere of serving others rather than shortening your own examination period.

*Submission of well-organized prima facie evidence will also affect the examiner's impression, so you should be proactive.

５ー２、If you have already applied(2024/10/15 added)

(I will add frequently asked questions here.)

What should I do if I have already applied to the Shinagawa Immigration Bureau?

In this case, even if you move after you have applied, the documents will not be transferred to a different jurisdiction.

In other words, even if you move to Shizuoka Prefecture (Nagoya Regional Immigration Bureau jurisdiction) after applying to the Shinagawa Immigration Bureau while living in Tokyo, the application will continue to be processed by the Shinagawa Immigration Bureau.

If the time since you applied is short, you will have to wait a long time even though you have moved.

For example, if the processing time at the Shinagawa Immigration Office is 20 months and at the Nagoya Immigration Office is 5 months,
then those who have applied within 15 months of the application will lose out.

If, by any chance, you have applied at the Shinagawa Immigration Office but cannot wait that long,

1. Withdraw your application for permanent residence at the Shinagawa Immigration Bureau
2. Then move
3. Reapply for permanent residence at the new Immigration Bureau.

The disadvantage is that you will have to go through the same application process again, so you will have to go through the hassle of collecting the necessary documents.
In particular, you will need to collect the documents related to your residential tax from the local office,Shiyakusyo or Kuyakusyo, where you were registered before you moved, so you will also need to think about when to collect them.

You will also need to consider whether you can afford to move and whether you can pay to move.

If you have plans to become a permanent resident because you want to do something, you are planning to get married or have a baby, etc.,and you need to become a permanent resident sooner rather than later,
there may be cases where the benefits outweigh the risks in terms of finances and the hassle of the paperwork.

'I didn't know I had to wait this long',
it is still possible to take the above-mentioned measures.

(I think it is a fairly rare case where someone can withdraw their application after it has been submitted, move house, and then reapply). 

６、Conclusion

The examination period for permanent residence applications at the Tokyo Regional Immigration Bureau (+ Yokohama Regional Immigration Bureau) has been hopelessly extended.
This trend will not change, and it is unlikely that the examination period will shorten in the next few years.

The only countermeasure to this is to move.

Considering that it takes 20 months in the jurisdiction of Tokyo Immigration Bureau and 5 months elsewhere,
There is ample merit in moving to shorten the examination period for permanent residence applications.

Especially if you are a single person, it is better to move to Shizuoka or Fukushima prefecture, which are within an hour to Tokyo.
If you are working remotely, flying to Hokkaido or Okinawa is the best option if you are only considering the time it takes to get your permanent residence application reviewed.

It is an anomaly that it takes more than a year to wait for the result of permanent residence application.
I hope that the Tokyo Regional Immigration Bureau will do something about it soon, but there is no indication yet that they are going to take serious measures.

Therefore, if you cannot wait, please move out.
If you can wait, you will need to wait about 15 months after applying for just waiting time, and wait with an open mind.
I hope that you will think at a level where you will forget that you have applied.

Of course, a longer examination period means a higher probability of various changes in your life.
This can be a risk, and there is a danger of falling into the pitfalls of the screening process, so you must be very careful.